The failure of risk management : (Record no. 127570)

MARC details
000 -LEADER
fixed length control field 06395cam a22004098i 4500
001 - CONTROL NUMBER
control field 21293027
003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER
control field phtghnu
005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION
control field 20230704110057.0
007 - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION FIXED FIELD--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field ta
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field 191107s2020 nju 001 0 eng
010 ## - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CONTROL NUMBER
LC control number 2019051494
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
International Standard Book Number 9781119522034
Qualifying information (hardback)
040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE
Language of cataloging eng
Description conventions rda
Transcribing agency HNU
042 ## - AUTHENTICATION CODE
Authentication code pcc
050 00 - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CALL NUMBER
Classification number HD61
Item number .H76 2020
082 00 - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER
Classification number 658.155 H86
Edition number 23
Placement Code GC
Item number 2020
100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Hubbard, Douglas W.,
Dates associated with a name 1962-
Relator term author.
245 14 - TITLE STATEMENT
Title The failure of risk management :
Remainder of title why it's broken and how to fix it /
Statement of responsibility, etc. Douglas W. Hubbard.
250 ## - EDITION STATEMENT
Edition statement Second edition.
263 ## - PROJECTED PUBLICATION DATE
Projected publication date 2001
264 #1 - PRODUCTION, PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, MANUFACTURE, AND COPYRIGHT NOTICE
Place of production, publication, distribution, manufacture Hoboken, New Jersey :
Name of producer, publisher, distributor, manufacturer Wiley,
Date of production, publication, distribution, manufacture, or copyright notice 2020.
300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Extent xvii, 366 pages :
Other physical details illustrations ;
Dimensions 24 cm
336 ## - CONTENT TYPE
Content type term text
Content type code txt
Source rdacontent
337 ## - MEDIA TYPE
Media type term unmediated
Media type code n
Source rdamedia
338 ## - CARRIER TYPE
Carrier type term volume
Carrier type code nc
Source rdacarrier
500 ## - GENERAL NOTE
General note Includes index.
505 ## - FORMATTED CONTENTS NOTE
Formatted contents note About the Author xi Preface xiii Acknowledgments xvii Part One An Introduction To The Crisis 1 Chapter 1 Healthy Skepticism for Risk Management 3 A “Common Mode Failure” 5 Key Definitions: Risk Management and Some Related Terms 8 What Failure Means 14 Scope and Objectives of This Book 17 Chapter 2 A Summary of the Current State of Risk Management 21 A Short and Entirely-Too-Superficial History of Risk 21 Current State of Risk Management in the Organization 25 Current Risks and How They are Assessed 26 Chapter 3 How Do We Know What Works? 35 Anecdote: The Risk of Outsourcing Drug Manufacturing 36 Why It’s Hard to Know What Works 40 An Assessment of Self-Assessments 44 Potential Objective Evaluations of Risk Management 48 What We May Find 57 Chapter 4 Getting Started: A Simple Straw Man Quantitative Model 61 A Simple One-for-One Substitution 63 The Expert as the Instrument 64 A Quick Overview of “Uncertainty Math” 67 Establishing Risk Tolerance 72 Supporting the Decision: A Return on Mitigation 73 Making the Straw Man Better 75 Part Two Why It’s Broken 79 Chapter 5 The “Four Horsemen” of Risk Management: Some (Mostly) Sincere Attempts to Prevent an Apocalypse 81 Actuaries 83 War Quants: How World War II Changed Risk Analysis Forever 86 Economists 90 Management Consulting: How a Power Tie and a Good Pitch Changed Risk Management 96 Comparing the Horsemen 103 Major Risk Management Problems to Be Addressed 105 Chapter 6 An Ivory Tower of Babel: Fixing the Confusion about Risk 109 The Frank Knight Definition 111 Knight’s Influence in Finance and Project Management 114 A Construction Engineering Definition 118 Risk as Expected Loss 119 Defining Risk Tolerance 121 Defining Probability 128 Enriching the Lexicon 131 Chapter 7 The Limits of Expert Knowledge: Why We Don’t Know What We Think We Know about Uncertainty 135 The Right Stuff: How a Group of Psychologists Might Save Risk Analysis 137 Mental Math: Why We Shouldn’t Trust the Numbers in Our Heads 139 “Catastrophic” Overconfidence 142 The Mind of “Aces”: Possible Causes and Consequences of Overconfidence 150 Inconsistencies and Artifacts: What Shouldn’t Matter Does 155 Answers to Calibration Tests 160 Chapter 8 Worse Than Useless: The Most Popular Risk Assessment Method and Why It Doesn’t Work 163 A Few Examples of Scores and Matrices 164 Does That Come in “Medium”?: Why Ambiguity Does Not Offset Uncertainty 170 Unintended Effects of Scales: What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You 173 Different but Similar-Sounding Methods and Similar but Different-Sounding Methods 183 Chapter 9 Bears, Swans and Other Obstacles to Improved Risk Management 193 Algorithm Aversion and a Key Fallacy 194 Algorithms versus Experts: Generalizing the Findings 198 A Note about Black Swans 203 Major Mathematical Misconceptions 209 We’re Special: The Belief That Risk Analysis Might Work, but Not Here 217 Chapter 10 Where Even the Quants Go Wrong: Common and Fundamental Errors in Quantitative Models 223 A Survey of Analysts Using Monte Carlos 224 The Risk Paradox 228 Financial Models and the Shape of Disaster: Why Normal Isn’t So Normal 236 Following Your Inner Cow: The Problem with Correlations 243 The Measurement Inversion 248 Is Monte Carlo Too Complicated? 250 Part Three How to Fix It 255 Chapter 11 Starting with What Works 257 Speak the Language 259 Getting Your Probabilities Calibrated 266 Using Data for Initial Benchmarks 272 Checking the Substitution 280 Simple Risk Management 285 Chapter 12 Improving the Model 293 Empirical Inputs 294 Adding Detail to the Model 305 Advanced Methods for Improving Expert’s Subjective Estimates 312 Other Monte Carlo Tools 315 Self-Examinations for Modelers 317 Chapter 13 The Risk Community: Intra- and Extra-organizational Issues of Risk Management 323 Getting Organized 324 Managing the Model 327 Incentives for a Calibrated Culture 331 Extraorganizational Issues: Solutions beyond Your Office Building 337 Practical Observations from Trustmark 339 Final Thoughts on Quantitative Models and Better Decisions 341 Additional Calibration Tests and Answers 345 Index 357<br/>
520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc. "The Failure of Risk Management is about a serious problem in the business of risk analysis and how to fix it. Basic analysis methods are unused, or misapplied, in many major corporate and government decisions. This book shows how some of the most popular "risk analysis" methods are no better than astrology -they are not based on anything an actuary or statistician would recognize as sound, quantitative analysis. Businesses, governments, and the public have completely unrealistic perceptions of risk, currently. This book addresses proper risk methodology, to educate decision makers across industries. This new edition will include new examples citing recent events (e.g. hurricanes and data breaches), new statistical methods, and updated data"--
Assigning source Provided by publisher.
521 ## - TARGET AUDIENCE NOTE
Target audience note College of Business and Accountancy
Source Bachelor of Science in Accountancy
546 ## - LANGUAGE NOTE
Language note Text in English
650 #0 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element Risk management.
776 08 - ADDITIONAL PHYSICAL FORM ENTRY
Relationship information Online version:
Main entry heading Hubbard, Douglas W., 1962-
Title The failure of risk management
Edition Second edition.
Place, publisher, and date of publication Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, 2020.
International Standard Book Number 9781119522027
Record control number (DLC) 2019051495
906 ## - LOCAL DATA ELEMENT F, LDF (RLIN)
a 7
b cbc
c orignew
d 1
e ecip
f 20
g y-gencatlg
942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA)
Source of classification or shelving scheme Dewey Decimal Classification
Koha item type Books
Classification part 600-699
Holdings
Withdrawn status Lost status Source of classification or shelving scheme Damaged status Not for loan Collection code Home library Current library Shelving location Date acquired Source of acquisition Total Checkouts Full call number Barcode Date last seen Date last checked out Price effective from Koha item type
    Dewey Decimal Classification     GC College Library College Library General Circulation Section 03/09/2023 Library Fund 1 GC 658.155 H86 2020 HNU003829 08/29/2024 10/17/2023 07/04/2023 Books